Pailton Engineering: Can green buses reverse the historic decline in bus ridership?

Although buses remain the most popular form of public transport, bus use in England outside of London has been in decline since the 1950s. Here, Roger Brereton, from steering parts manufacturer Pailton Engineering, assesses whether current commitments to electric and hydrogen buses, as embodied in the government’s National Bus Strategy, are can help reverse this decline.

The Government’s bus strategy, released in March 2021, has two principle objectives. First, it is to help bus usage recover to its pre-pandemic levels. Secondly, it is to increase usage beyond this level, thereby reversing a historic decline in ridership levels. Achieving this ambitious goal is linked to wider national objectives such as reaching Net Zero by 2050 and ‘‘levelling up.’’

For both bus enthusiasts and environmentalists, the achievement of this goal would be a positive. However, to understand if and how it is possible, we first need to understand the reasons for the decline. This decline began many decades ago and deregulation in the 1980s failed to reverse it. It has continued unabated since then, although there are some localised exceptions. Outside of London, 70 out of 88 local authorities experienced a fall in the number of bus journeys per person per year between 2010-11 and 2018-19.

The rise in homeworking and online shopping have both had a negative impact on demand for bus travel. However, according to a 2016 report by KPMG, the single biggest factor that has negatively impacted ridership levels has been the relative attractiveness of cars. KPMG estimated this factor was responsible for five per cent of the decline between 2014-15 and 2018-19. During that same decade, government funding for bus services fell, while the cost of bus fares increased at higher rate than the consumer price index.

Can green transport turn things around?
From a policy point of view, the key reforms in the government’s strategy have more to do with service reforms than with whether a particular bus is zero emission. However, the strategy does make available significant funding to incentivise the switch to electric of hydrogen buses and commits the government to the target of putting 4,000 new zero carbon buses on the road by the end of 2024.

The key benefit of the additional government funding is that it wipes out the commercial incentives for persisting with diesel. Previously, the high capital expenditure required for investment in zero emissions buses meant that diesel buses remained the more viable option from a purely commercial point of view. By levelling the playing field, the government’s intervention would surely have a positive impact?

In addition to this funding, research is showing that public attitudes toward greener modes of transport could also work in tandem with this objective, as electric and hydrogen buses will be more popular with the public. Research undertaken by ComRes on behalf of Go Ahead’s Zero Emission Centre of Excellence discovered that while only 26 percent of the public view bus travel as a green form of transport, this rises to 81 percent when people are informed the bus they are using is powered by an electric or hydrogen fuel cell battery. Furthermore, the researchers found that 55 percent of respondents said they would be more likely to travel by bus if they knew that zero emission buses were available.

Despite these positive signs, it is still down to the operators of the buses to put in the orders. Although the new funding has reduced the incentives for further investment in diesel, operators are still reluctant to make the significant investment in new buses at a time of declining usage. As things currently stand the ambition of reaching the 4,000 target by 2024 is unlikely.

Bus operators should draw the right lessons from research demonstrating that investment in greener transport is likely to yield greater patronage than diesel buses. Once that dynamic kicks in, we might begin to see the beginnings of a reversal in the historic decline of bus use.

Pailton Engineering provides high quality custom steering components to the bus and coach sector.

www.pailton.com

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